India’s strategy; our response | Talat Hussain

Syed Talat Hussain

With two Indian High Commission employees spending time in Pakistan’s custody (now released) on a hit-and-run traffic accident charge, the tit-for-tat game of bilateral diplomatic degradation is now in full swing. Remember Delhi two days ago had caught two Pakistani officials and deported them after slapping them with espionage accusations. Both countries’ missions are already working at the Deputy High Commissioners level after the last year’s Indian move in Occupied Kashmir to revoke the disputed territory’s special status, and attach its broken parts with the Indian Union.

This might seem like small news against the backdrop of a long history of jingoism that has come to define their relations, but at present they reflect a worrying drift towards an impending or accidental adventurism that could light up the borders at a large scale.

Islamabad is rife with the talk of the Line of Control heating up and the army leadership is in a state of high alert about a surprise Indian move. But we don't know if and when that move is going to be made. 

The Imran Khan government for its part has upped the anxiety level in the country with the Prime Minister constantly talking about a ‘false-flag operation’. This implies a big violent incident inside the Occupied territory or Indian mainland becoming Delhi’s excuse to carry out some military strike against Pakistan or most probably in Azad Kashmir.

But we are never told what information does PM Imran uses as the basis of his refrain, and if that information is so solid that he wants the world to listen to him on that count, what concrete measures he has in contemplation, both diplomatic and military, to deal with it? Delhi planning a devious move in an environment of heightened tensions is a very serious matter. It can’t be tossed around for flimsy and congratulatory commentary on twitter trail.

But then this is how we have seen critical issues of national security being taken up recently----without follow up and context, without deliberations on forums like the National Security Committee, which remains dormant even as the head of the government warns of an imminent attack.

Perhaps the idea is that by keeping the drum of the Indian threat (which could well be real) beating the government looks like being in control of the situation. Or at least look to be aware of its responsibilities. The flipside however is that repeated emergency shouts without anything happening over a long period of time erode credibility. Also it shows Pakistan to be in a state of needless panic, getting startled every time a twig breaks. States with declared and proven nuclear capability need a more confident posture.

The bottom-line is that India’s actions will remain provocative. It will ignite fires here and there to distract and invite Pakistan to expend and spend its energies and resources. Reacting to everything Delhi does might produce the psychological comfort instinctive equalizers bring, but this is hardly the blueprint of a well-thought policy. From rooting for Modi’s electoral victory to declaring him a fascist to building the Kartarpura corridor to conjuring up images of a nuclear holocaust in South Asia, the Imran government and the Establishment have kept their India outlook in a state of confusing flux. A confused, panic-prone opponent is to the advantage of the enemy. This is strategy 101.

See how much focus there is on defence issues and on the Indian threat to Pakistan in the media: 

http://gallup.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Talkshow-Analysis-Report-December-2019.pdf