India’s moment of truth in Ladakh | Talat Hussain

Syed Talat Hussain

The killing of dozens of Indian soldiers in clashes with the Chinese border forces in Eastern Ladakh and subsequent warnings from Beijing to Delhi to not meddle in what the Chinese call their side of the Line of Actual Control has given Prime Minister Narendra Modi a bloody nose and a broken ego.

If the shooting down of the Indian plane by Pakistan and the capture of its pilot Abhinand Varthaman after a quick dog-fight last year punched large holes in the Indian Airforce’s competence claims, the Ladakh clashes have shown the Indian ground forces’ extreme limitations. But for Mr Modi, who likes to portray himself as an avatar of Hindu gods of war and conquest, this is a blow right on the jaw and one that has led to total paralysis of his military strategy.

For someone who likes to pretend as India is always battle-ready, and will go to any length to achieve its strategic goals---hot pursuit, incursions, cold start etc---he has had to hunker down in humiliation, licking his wounds wondering what to do. React and get more beating?

Not react and let this become the standard way China will always deal with India in Ladakh, where according to Delhi’s own claims the Chinese have taken over vast chunks of land by expanding pickets and patrolling.

His opponents are demanding explanations and those like Mehbooba Mufti are mocking him by citing his own policy of “ghar mein ghus kar mariain gey”----his popular phrase suggesting that he will deal with Pakistan by intruding in its territory. 

The huddles in India involving all decision makers have not produced anything worthy to report. Save for a meek response from the ministry of external affairs, Delhi remains shell-shocked. It seems to be pursuing the doctrine of Cold-Feet-No-Start.

The Chinese have come out as sure-shot winners from this episode. Even though the Chinese spokesperson has spoken of “restraint” and “dialogue”, it is abundantly clear that Beijing will define the lines of actual control in this critical area by its own will and will not let diplomatic niceties come in the way of the achievement of that goal. Beijing also understands perfectly well that Modi’s Trump card is totally neturalized as racial tensions and internal disarray continues to unfold in the US. The Indian desire to piggyback on the US encirclement of China and become a dominant force in the region extending to the Pacific is also a lost cause at present. Delhi is no match to Chinese military power and has no capacity to even retaliate in kind. This leaves the ground pretty much open to the Chinese to extend their zone of influence and change the status quo to their advantage.

For Pakistan these incidents are also advantageous. While the military high command has in its assessments the possibility of Mr Modi using a short conflict with Pakistan as diversion from its rout in Ladakh, however, it is also understood that he will be foolhardy to get involved in another situation when he is bleeding diplomatically and militarily in Ladakh. India’s humbling means that Delhi has expanding headaches, and China now looms larger than ever before on the Indian thinking. That is the issue number 1 for Mr Modi on whose watch India’s myth of great power has suffered a shattering hit.