Gen Bajwa, Faiz visit to Kabul and Afghanistan peace | Talat Hussain

Syed Talat Hussain

The dash to Kabul by the chief of army staff General Qamar Bajwa and DG ISI General Faiz Hameed, and their meetings with Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, have again bred optimism that the final peace deal on Afghanistan can be secured, paving the way for the US to pull out with some grace and some workable political arrangement to emerge in its wake.

Those familiar with the proceedings in Kabul have told me that there are strong chances of intra-Afghan peace talks formally starting in the next few days in Doha. The Taliban are waiting for the last batch of their 1500 prisoners to be released and when that number is reached, the table will be laid for the intra-Afghan dialogue in all earnest.

This may sound too good to be true; the more so since the February 2020 landmark peace deal between the Taliban and the US administration has been collapsing in slow-motion with violence escalating and fighting going on in Afghanistan’s troubled east and south pockets and in Kabul itself.

As the Trump Administration started to sink deeper and deeper into a domestic morass aggravated by the Corona pandemic and now racial tensions, Afghanistan has looked to again become a backyard of Washington’s priorities abandoned for more pressing challenges at home.

I am now told that this has changed. The Trump Administration has pulled its weight and influence with the Kabul government to deliver on the promises to the Taliban, and Pakistan has got Taliban factions to put their best foot forward in the upcoming negotiations in Doha.

Starting a process of a politically-negotiated endgame for Afghanistan’s two-decades of destructive war means much to the Trump Administration, which is overwhelmed by an expanding internal disorder and desperately short on success stories to tell to weary US voters.

It is even more important for the Taliban, who started off as US enemy number 1, got tagged as a terror outfit, fought their way back into the battlefield, reclaimed territory, and are now being accepted as legitimate stakeholders in sharing political power with other actors in Afghanistan. They have gained the most from the recent developments, and they hope to get more out of the final result from the intra-Afghan talks in Doha.

Pakistan has gained as well. It has kept its influence intact in Afghanistan’s volatile and deadly mix. It has used its clout with the Taliban well and got them to agree to workable final terms of engagement with Kabul. It has been instrumental in setting up the table for the final act. Also diplomatically Islamabad always relishes the opportunity to do good to Washington in the hope of cashing it elsewhere---a policy that does not always work but it has been a constant in Pakistan’s engagement with the US for decades.

The real gain for Pakistan, however, will be a settlement that ensures that after the US departure Afghanistan does not descend into a bloody power-struggle or an outright civil war. It is a nightmare scenario especially for the military, which is facing escalating hostility from India on the eastern side of the borders. This is why General Qamar Bajwa like General Raheel Sharif and General Pervaiz Kiani before him has kept Afghanistan’s handling tightly in his own hands. However, more than his predecessors, General Bajwa has taken the front-seat on Afghanistan because of  Imran Khan’s established incapacity to deal with big-ticket foreign and defense policy issues. Moreover, an Afghan peace deal will also meet General Bajwa’s desire to leave a legacy stronger than those before him.

But it is too early to blow trumpets of success. Afghanistan is a tricky territory. The Trump Administration is in dire trouble and is losing rationality. Violence and animus rules Afghanistan, a semi-dysfunctional state run by outside help.  The Taliban have dozen hands to play on the negotiating table. And they are not a monolithic group anyway. The border with Pakistan despite being fenced remains a spillway of trouble coming into Pakistan’s mainland.

We also know that the Afghan talks can be very long and protracted.  The Taliban will want to milk every comma of the final deal, especially now that they know that Washington is exhausted and wants to leave. Ghani, Abdullah and a dozen other local warlords would want to secure their interests that are not always compatible. Some want money. Others want business. Still, others want to retain their powerful positions. We don't know how Trump will react if the deal takes longer and becomes a diplomatic embarrassment for his dwindled Administration.

This makes Afghanistan exactly what it has been for decades---a place where hope and looming disasters travel together. Lets see which of the two makes it home.